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Despite the worsening economic recession, a large percentage of investment advisors polled in a recent study of independent registered investment advisors believe the downturn will end in one to two years, but recouping client losses might take longer.
Advisors dont have a GPS to guide them, but they have the experience and savvy to see that there are still potholes on the road ahead, Bernard J. Clark, senior vice president of sales and relationship management for Charles Schwab Advisor Services, said about the survey conducted by his company.
The question of when the recession will end puts advisors at odds. Consider that 41% of the respondents said the recession would end by December 2009, while the same percentage believed the recession would end one year laterin December 2010. Advisors were almost equally divided as to how long it might take for investors to recoup portfolio losses. For instance, 32% said investors could recover losses by December 2011, while 35% said it would take until as long as 2014.
Ultimately, the timing for the recessions end does not matter, as long as investors have solid short-term and long-term financial plans in place, said Nan Cohen, a certified financial planner and co-founder of Cleveland, Ohio-based Cedar Brook Financial Partners, LLC. Your plan will work, as long as youve bought good quality [assets] and as long as you have adjusted for risk, Cohen said.
Advisors also weighed in on the governments short-term plan for the country. About 75% of respondents said that tax incentives for businesses to create jobs would be the most beneficial component of President Barack Obamas economic stimulus plan, followed by 65% who endorsed funding to support U.S. infrastructure improvements. Another 68% also professed confidence in the leadership of Federal Reserve Chairman Benjamin Bernanke.
They have seen more creativity come out of the Fed and the federal government in the last 18 months than in our lifetimes, probably, said Clark, adding that advisors are rewarding those efforts by expressing confidence in Bernanke.
The question of confidence, specifically between clients and their financial advisors, might also have influenced a noticeable shift of assets from full-service brokerage firms to the independent advisors in the study, said Cohen, the independent financial planner.
For example, 91% of advisors had new assets in the last six months. Of those new assets, 45% came from full-service brokerage firms. Among advisors who had acquired new clients from full-service brokerage firms, 69% say that their clients had lost trust in their previous firms, while 48% said their new clients had lost money in the past six months.
Those poll results might reinforce the notion that a client did not value the relationship with their advisor enough to begin with, said Cohen. Having their advisors firm name blasted in the news for the past six months might inspire them to make a change that they were going to make anyway, she said.
The survey also revealed some key investor behaviors and habits. Investors are confused about whats going onand whats happened to their portfoliosand with good reason, said Clark. Now more than ever, advisors tell us that their new clients portfolios are in need of an overhaul."
After assessing their new clients portfolios, independent advisors made a couple of key findings. First, 74% said their new clients asset allocations were inappropriate, given their risk tolerance. Meanwhile, 53% of advisors reported that their new clients had a lot of high-cost products, and 49% reported that there were too many proprietary products in their new clients portfolios.
I can tell you, from traveling around the country, that virtually everyone tells me their lead flow [for new clients] has never been stronger, said Clark. These advisors are having an opportunity to right those financial positions.
At the same time, approximately 84% of respondents said they expected difficulty achieving their clients investment goals in the current environment.
The survey was completed over 10 days in January 2009, and includes the opinions of 1,240 advisors employed by independent advisory firms, whose assets under management totaled more than $300 billion, and whose companies use Charles Schwab as a custodial agent for investor assets.
