WASHINGTON – President Barack Obama won re-election late Tuesday, a big loss for bankers that had overwhelming favored his opponent.
But Democrat's financial policy agenda over the next two years will be far more about defending their past achievements than scoring new ones.
During the party's convention in Charlotte, key Democratic lawmakers called the election their opportunity to cement the Dodd-Frank Act, which Republicans were vowing to scale back.
"I can't imagine an ambitious agenda coming out of Democrats in Congress," said Rep. Brad Miller, D-N.C., who is retiring from Congress, in reference to the next 12 months. "Their energies will be taken by the effort to protect the reforms that we passed."
Rep. Al Green, D-Texas, a member of the House Financial Services Committee, agreed.
"I think that if we can take the House again, we can make sure that Dodd-Frank does what it's intended to do," he said.
The election results ratified the status quo in Washington, with the Democrats retaining the White House and holding onto Senate control, while Republicans maintained control of the House.
Democrats argued in pre-election interviews that it will be up to the Republicans — on a range of issues affecting the economy — to decide whether they are going to continue a legislative strategy that the Democrats characterize as obstructionism.
"If the president wins, as we expect that he will, then the Republicans will have to make a choice," said Dan Pfeiffer, White House communications director, during an event in Charlotte hosted by Politico. "Are they going to continue down the path they've been on … or will they make a change?"
In financial policy, the one major area where there is bipartisan agreement on the need for congressional action is the reform of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. There is also a widespread belief that a reform bill can only become law if Democrats and Republicans work together to find a consensus.
"I think ultimately it's going to take compromise," Green said. "I don't think either side is going to have its way."
To reach a deal, Democrats and some of the more moderate members of the Republican Party will have to overcome an ideological disagreement with more conservative Republicans over whether the federal government should continue to provide a backstop to the U.S. housing market. The long-standing disagreement is marked by mutual distrust.
At the Republican National Convention in Tampa, Republicans blamed the Obama Administration for failing to keep its word that it would provide a more detailed plan on reform of the government-sponsored enterprises. The following week in Charlotte, House Democrats faulted their GOP counterparts for not moving forward with a plan of their own — after trumpeting their own ideas when Democrats controlled the House.
"It's extraordinary how little the committee has done in two years," said Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., the top Democrat on the House Financial Services Committee, who is also retiring from Congress this year. "I think it's been one of the great legislative failures."
Members of both parties insist publicly that it is possible to pass a bill to reform Fannie and Freddie in 2013. Privately, though, some insiders acknowledge that it will be extremely difficult to move reform of the housing giants onto the national agenda during a year in which deficit reduction is expected to dominate the political debate.
While a law to reform the government-sponsored enterprises appears to be a long shot in 2013, it seems more likely that the Obama Administration will lay its own cards on the table next year. The administration released a white paper on the reform of Fannie and Freddie in February 2011, in which it presented three different options but did not endorse any of them.
Today, some on Capitol Hill believe that the administration has done more work behind the scenes than it has shown publicly and is waiting until after the election to release a more detailed reform plan.
The other issue that is expected to dominate financial policy discussions next year — as it has for the last three years — is Dodd-Frank.
While congressional Democrats seem to be relatively united in defending the law itself, some Democrats are joining their Republican counterparts in pressuring the agencies responsible for implementing the law to adopt the suggestions of industry.
At a real-estate industry forum in Charlotte, Sen. Mark Begich, D-Alaska, said that he wants to help industry officials make their case to regulators about the burdens some of their new proposals impose.
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