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Advisors Lose Confidence in October

By Stacy Schultz
October 27, 2009
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Advisors’ confidence in the stock market and economy fell in October, revealing their apprehension regarding the long-term outlook.

The Advisor Confidence Index (ACI) dropped 2% to 107.33 this month from 109.14, following a 5% rise in September. All four of the measures in the ACI fell this month, with the stock market outlook seeing the largest 3.11% drop, followed by a 2.41% drop in the 12-month economic outlook. The six-month economic outlook fell just 0.81%, and the six-month economic outlook dropped by a mere 0.12%.

The ACI is a measure of advisor views on the U.S. economy and stock market from Rydex AdvisorBenchmarking.

Advisors believe the stock market will continue to rise gradually in the short-term as the Dow Jones Industrial Average crossed the 10,000 mark this month. However, they became increasingly concerned about the long-term view, paying particular attention to unemployment numbers.

Bill Ramsay, of Financial Symmetry in Raleigh, N.C. thinks markets have transitioned from fear of a weak recovery to anxiety over the reemergence of inflation and the dangers of high interest rates.

“Our long-term concerns have not been placated; in fact the factors contributing to the short-term economic ‘revival’ are likely to make the long-term economic outlook even worse,” Ramsay says.

He indicates that we are vulnerable to a correction over the next couple of months, and that the trillions in global stimulus money could still have an impact on international markets.

George Cheatham, founder and president of American Financial Consultants in Columbia, Ky. expects to see muted growth throughout the next several months, and no growth in the employment market whatsoever.

Investors, Cheatham says, should be reviewing their portfolios to account for more realistic goals for returns. “Investors should especially take into account the fact that the world economy is changing and they will have to change their investing habits to account for the new global economy, which will see better long-term growth opportunities overseas rather than at home.”