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Tiger Cubs

By Donald Jay Korn
October 2, 2007
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Chindia. The word, introduced in 2005, already triggers 244,000 results on Google. For planners, it may be translated as "big profits from big countries." As of August 10, Morningstar reported that the closed-end China Fund was up 38.73% per year for the past five years, while the closed-end India Fund had a 42.85% annualized return for the same period. Exchange-traded funds and mutual funds investing in those countries enjoyed similar outsize gains.

But what about the smaller markets around China and India? Many have growing economies and impressive returns. "Asia is emerging from a 10-year cyclical downturn that featured a collapse in domestic investment at both government and company levels," says Edmund Harriss, co-manager of the Guinness Atkinson China & Hong Kong Fund.

With phenomenal returns across the board, the trick will be assessing which countries have peaked and which still offer bargains. Bangladesh, Indonesia, Pakistan, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam have all had strong returns often with lower valuations than China. These smaller tigers may be below most radars. In Morgan Stanley's cap-weighted Asia ex-Japan index, for example, no country has a weighting that's greater than Thailand's 2.5%.

Indonesia. Its market is pegged to become Asia's next China, but with high returns, it might be a good long-term commodities play. An OPEC member, it's also an important producer of coal, copper, palm oil, rubber and tin. Its market has already benefited substantially from high commodity prices: The Indonesia Fund from Credit Suisse Asset Management has posted a 38.36% annual return for the past five years. Mark Headley, CEO of Matthews International Capital Management in San Francisco and lead manager of the Pacific Tiger Fund, had 5.6% of his fund's assets in Indonesian stocks at the end of July—versus a 2.3% weighting in Morgan Stanley's Asia ex-Japan index.

"The country has enormous mineral wealth and the kind of climate where you can grow anything," he says. "Indonesia has some great companies now trading at valuations below what you'd pay for the hottest Chinese stocks."

Vietnam. Its young stock market gained 144% in 2006. "To some people, the country is the next 'it' economy in Southeast Asia," says Headley. "A lot of investment in infrastructure is under way." Economic growth there was 8.2% last year, second only to China, according to Lance McBride, CEO of Lorachell International in Brea, Calif. Capitalism is on the ascendancy as state-owned businesses are privatized. And Vietnam joined the World Trade Organization, so new trading agreements are likely.

Pakistan and Bangladesh. Markets here have also appreciated substantially, although based on price-to-earnings ratios, Pakistani stocks were selling at a discount to those in China and India. The benchmark Karachi Stock Exchange 100 index was up more than 25% for 2007, as of August 10, as money came in from the U.S., the U.K. and Persian Gulf countries. In Bangladesh, the Dhaka Stock Exchange General Index posted a record high in July and then backed off, but still trades at nearly triple the level of six years ago.

Thailand. Its stock returns have been excellent: The closed-end Thai Fund and Thai Capital Fund both posted five-year returns over 26% as of August 31. In addition, "The military government seems ready to back an election this year, which would indicate a return to democracy," says Headley. "The economy is moving along and stocks are relatively inexpensive, compared with some Asian markets." Indeed, his fund has its largest overweight in Thailand: 9.8% of assets, versus a 2.5% index weighting.

The Philippines. The Philippine Stock Exchange Index gained over 42% in 2006, hitting a record high in July 2007. T. Rowe Price New Asia Fund, for example, has 2% of assets there, versus Morgan Stanley's weighting of less than 1%. "The country has a buoyant economy and some good companies," including phone and electric utilities that trade in the U.S. as American Depository Receipts, says fund manager Frances Dydasco.

GAINING ACCESS

None of these countries is a slam-dunk, because their stock markets have appreciated a lot in recent years and it may be hard to get access to in markets like Vietnam. Lorachell International's McBride claims that his company is addressing this. "We're working on reverse mergers, which will form Vietnamese companies that will be listed here," he says.

Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines are easiest to tap with mutual funds and ETFs. So are Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan, which have funds trading in the U.S. Five-year returns in Malaysia and Taiwan have trailed considerably, and may have appealing valuations.

The best way to access these regions is through funds. "Most advisors' expertise is not picking Vietnam versus Pakistan," says Bill Rocco, a senior analyst at Morningstar. "A better approach would be a diversified regional fund."

There are many Asia or Pacific funds that exclude Japan, which dwarfs other markets in the region. JPMorgan Asia Equity has the largest allocation to Indonesian stocks (8.55%); AIM Asia Pacific Growth has 4.89% of its assets in the Philippines; and Guinness Atkinson Pacific Dividend has a 14.71% stake in Thailand. Or put clients in an Asian small-cap fund, which might invest heavily in stocks from less familiar markets. Eaton Vance Asia Small Companies, for example, recently had less than 20% of its assets in China and India, while holding sizable stakes in Singapore, Malaysia, Taiwan and Thailand. But be sure to look under the hood. DFA Asia Pacific Small Company recently had over half of its assets in Australia, New Zealand and Bermuda.

As the smaller Asian markets start to roar again, it may pay to invest in Tigers of all stripes.

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