(Bloomberg) — With one day to go until Election Day in the U.S., investors seem less certain of the outcome than prediction-market gamblers and polling aggregators.
Options bets on where the S&P 500 will be the day after the election suggest Hillary Clinton has a 63% chance of becoming president, Janus Capital said in an e-mail on Saturday. Most polling-aggregation forecasts put her odds of beating Donald Trump at more than 80%, with FiveThirtyEight an outlier at 65%. On websites that take wagers on the winner, Clinton’s lowest odds are in the Iowa Electronic Markets, where they climbed this weekend to over 70%, thanks in part to Sunday’s news that the FBI won’t revisit its July decision against seeking criminal charges related to her e-mail practices.
Register or login for access to this item and much more
All Financial Planning content is archived after seven days.
Community members receive:
- All recent and archived articles
- Conference offers and updates
- A full menu of enewsletter options
- Web seminars, white papers, ebooks
Already have an account? Log In
Don't have an account? Register for Free Unlimited Access