(Bloomberg) -- For the past four years, bond traders have quickly turned their focus after Federal Reserve meetings to something called the dot plot. A compilation of all 17 policy makers’ predictions on where they’ll take the benchmark rate (scattered in the form of dots on a chart), it was seen as a key insight into their collective thinking.
The problem is that the forecasts weren’t very good. Fed policy makers consistently overestimated the future strength of the U.S. economy and the pace of interest-rate increases, and traders are starting to tune them out. Market reaction to changes in the dot plot, once pronounced, has become more muted in recent months and investors at firms including Pimco, BlackRock and Aberdeen Asset Management say they won’t take the Fed’s projections at face value when they’re updated on Wednesday at the end of a two-day policy meeting.