In its latest global outlook, Barclays Capital said there is little chance for a double-dip recession and the recent economic slowdown is typical four-to-six quarters into a recovery.
"Moreover, because memories of recession are still fresh and levels of activity low at this point in the cycle, this transition phase usually generates a high level of anxiety and is accompanied by a setback in risky asset markets and new cycle lows in risk free and policy rates," wrote Larry Kantor, the head of research for Barclays.
Kantor added that the current slowdown "is likely to be followed not by a renewed recession, but rather a pickup in growth." The pace of the growth will not be as robust as it was in the initial post-recession phase. Kantor noted that the low levels at which cyclical sectors are operating in the developed world points to "little scope for a recession dynamic" as long as a "significant, new negative factor" doesn’t appear. He also said that the reasonable valuations for risky assets creates favorable conditions for financial markets.
Barclays estimates global economic growth will tally 4% to 4.5% this year—a "very respectable showing," that is comparable to the boom years from 2004-07. The growth will slow down after that but will still hover around the 4% mark.
"It is worth placing the current cycle in perspective," Kantor wrote. "We have just been through the deepest recession since the Great Depression, in which the financial markets came close to collapse. The mid-cycle slowdown phase always generates uncertainty and double-dip fears, but given the severity of the recession it is natural that these are even more acute this time around."
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