I think of myself as a part-time futurist, and I try hard to help FP's readers anticipate major trends rather than get blindsided by them. In this game, you quickly learn that crystal balls give you nothing more than a murky reflection of your aging face, and tea leaves are an imperfect guide to the next major innovation in dynamic asset allocation.

So I've developed a different model from the gypsies and fortune tellers: I look for the crazies. These are the people who abandon well-established business models for the "insane" reason that they want to give their clients something better. I call them crazies because, in the pioneering stages, it's sometimes hard to see how they're going to make money.

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