Money Market Veteran Questions Whether War Will Help Economy

While most mutual fund managers are bullish about a swift and triumphant war with Iraq, some say the war’s cost is not big enough to save a slow U.S. economy.

"We’ve already fully stocked up on microchips, lasers and all the technologies that will guide our bombs. In a $10 trillion or $11 trillion economy, even [making, transporting and using] thousands of bombs doesn't make that big of a dent," Fred Kobrick, a money market veteran, said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal.

A CBSMarketWatch.com story Fidelity posted on its own Web site yesterday also acknowledged that even if a war in Iraq should cost as much as $150 billion, it would only be a 1.5% fraction of the GDP.

Kobrick doesn’t believe the war will help corporate profits, either, although one beneficial side effect would be a contraction of consumer spending, which, in turn, would result in less-indebted consumers, Kobrick said.

In terms of the war rally of the past week, which has pushed the S&P 500 up 8%, Kobrick says it only occurred because the economy bottomed out in February, investors already have a clearer outlook on the economy and are anticipating lower oil prices.

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Money Management Executive
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