While most mutual fund managers are bullish about a swift and triumphant war with Iraq, some say the wars cost is not big enough to save a slow U.S. economy.
"Weve already fully stocked up on microchips, lasers and all the technologies that will guide our bombs. In a $10 trillion or $11 trillion economy, even [making, transporting and using] thousands of bombs doesn't make that big of a dent," Fred Kobrick, a money market veteran, said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal.
A CBSMarketWatch.com story Fidelity posted on its own Web site yesterday also acknowledged that even if a war in Iraq should cost as much as $150 billion, it would only be a 1.5% fraction of the GDP.
Kobrick doesnt believe the war will help corporate profits, either, although one beneficial side effect would be a contraction of consumer spending, which, in turn, would result in less-indebted consumers, Kobrick said.
In terms of the war rally of the past week, which has pushed the S&P 500 up 8%, Kobrick says it only occurred because the economy bottomed out in February, investors already have a clearer outlook on the economy and are anticipating lower oil prices.