Investors placing bets on a second-half recovery in the U.S. economy could prove to be overzealous, as key measures of growth are not aligned with soaring stock prices.

"The market is up big and is discounting a rosy 2003 and 2004," said Robert Brown, chief investment officer and senior vice president at GE Capital of Stamford, Conn., including the firm's $2 billion separately managed account unit, GE Private Asset Management. "We can't have this kind of out-sized return without significantly impacting valuation levels," Brown said. Based on historical trend line growth, he believes the S&P 500 is 5.6% overvalued.

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