Instead of a roaring recovery, the U.S. economy is going to experience a recovery closer to a whisper this year, analysts at Prudential’s annual Market and Retirement Outlook panel discussion predicted Tuesday.
While a deep recession is normally followed by growth somewhere in the 8% range, the U.S. economy will see something closer to 2% or 2.5% annualized growth, Robert Tipp, chief investment strategist for Prudential Fixed Income Management, predicted. The high level of consumer debt and the continued slump in real estate will both exert deflationary pressure. Normally, after a recession, consumer spending growth reaches the 4.5% mark, but this year spending growth is expected to hover around the 2% to 2.5% level. The economy is also facing the impact of the Federal Reserve’s plan to end its $1.25 trillion mortgage-backed-securities purchasing program at the end of the first quarter, which is expected to cause mortgage rates to rise.
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