Investors may be underestimating the chance that rising unemployment could push the economy back into recession and that the dollar rallies against the Euro and gold prices slide, says Janney. Barclays is optimistic about U.S. consumer spending and emerging markets, where central bankers have been raising reserve requirements rather than hiking rates to control inflation. KBW expects a quarter of the banks it follows to post a loss in the fourth quarter. But the worst in mortgage defaults may be behind us. 


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