The Conference Board Leading Economic Index rose 0.3% in August, following a 0.6% gain in July and a 0.3% increase in June.
“The August increase in the U.S. LEI was driven by components measuring financial and monetary conditions, which offset substantially weaker components measuring expectations,” said Ataman Ozyildiri, an economist with The Conference Board. “The growth trend in the LEI has moderated, and positive and negative contributors to the index have been roughly balanced. The leading indicators point to rising risks and volatility—and increasing concerns about the health of the expansion.”
Ken Goldstein, another economist with The Conference Board, added: “There is growing risk that sustained weak confidence could put downward pressure on demand and business activity, causing the economy to potentially dip into recession. While the chance of that happening remains below 50-50, the odds have certainly increased in recent months.”
