Fund performance

The U.S. economy has hit its stride, with GDP on track to grow 3% over the next two years, according to a report from TD Economics.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index increased 0.8% in February to 113.4 (2004=100), following a 0.1% increase in January and a 1.0% increase in December. The index is now at an all-time historical high and 16% higher than its most recent trough in March 2009.

After two years of solid market gains, you may be wondering what comes next. Historically, the market drops 10% about once a year, so don’t be surprised if we see a 1,200-point drop in the Dow, says Kate Warne, investment strategist at Edward Jones.

Nothing that Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Ben Bernanke, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner or President Barack Obama can do at this point is going to prevent this country from going into another Great Depression.

The Fidelity Millionaire Outlook, a survey of 1,000 millionaires, found that while their current outlook on the economy is weak, many expect marked improvement in the fourth quarter.

HOLLYWOOD, Fla. -- Nothing that Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Ben Bernanke, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner or President Barack Obama can do will prevent the United States economy from coming apart, under the weight of public and private debt.

NEW YORK-Unemployment may still be 9%. Single-family home starts may be down again. But the outlook from the corner office of fund managers is increasingly sunny.

Certified public accountants expressed their highest level of optimism on the U.S. economy since the third quarter of 2007, according to the latest AICPA/UNC Quarterly Economic Outlook Survey, in which 1,168 CPAs were queried. In addition, the CPAs’ expectations for hiring and capital spending on IT and other areas improved slightly.

Thirty-six percent of the 1,019 investors that Edward Jones surveyed said they believe technology will be the best-performing sector in 2011, and 31% are betting on gold.

Fund managers are bullish on the prospects for equities and emerging markets in 2011, but have bearish views on government bonds, a survey of 141 fund managers at the end of 2010 by Towers Watson found.

Thirty-four percent of the 3,171 adults that The Harris Poll surveyed in February expect the economy to improve in the coming year, 42% expect it to stay the same and 25% think it could get worse.

Rising markets and belt tightening boosted asset managers’ net margins to 23.4% in the fourth quarter, up from 21.1% in the third quarter, kasina reported Monday. This puts margins back to the level they were at before the credit crisis of 2008.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose 5.6 points this month to 70.4, up from 64.8 in January.

The State Street Investor Confidence Index, which measures the buying and selling patterns of institutional investors, fell 9.2 points in February to 91.6, down from 100.8 in January. In North America, the index fell 6.8 points to 92.5, down from 99.3.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index rose 0.1% in January to 112.3, following a 0.8% rise in December and a 1.1% increase in November.

Fund managers are the most bullish they have been on global equities they have been in a decade, with 67% overweight the asset class, according to the February BoA Merrill Lynch Survey of Fund Managers, which surveyed 188 fund managers with total assets of $569 billion under management. This is up from 55% in January and 40% in December.

The Country Financial Security Index rose 0.8 points to 64.9 in February, marking the first time the index has risen at the start of the year since Country Financial began the index in 2007.

Smaller Asian nations, namely Hong Kong, Singapore and South Korea, will lead global growth over the next year, asst management, private equity and hedge fund executives said in a survey conducted by RBC Capital Markets.

Seventy percent of investors believe the S&P 500 will increase by the end of the year, compared with only 33% who were bullish on the market in August, a survey by MoneyShow.com found.

Retail investors in municipals are shaken, but still standing, after a relentless barrage of negative media hype surrounding forecasts for massive municipal bankruptcies and defaults later this year.