Senate Republicans are poised to sink a $78 billion tax-cut package, gambling that they'll win the majority in November and can push then for bigger breaks for business.
They also don't want to hand President Joe Biden an election-year victory on the legislation, which includes both child and business tax breaks, lawmakers and aides have said.
The package, the top business lobbying objective this year, easily passed the Republican-controlled House in January on a bipartisan 357 to 70 vote. It also has White House support.
But Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell supports efforts to block the package, as does his No. 2, John Thune.
Both senators were once considered possible supporters of the bill, a GOP aide said, but are now bending to strong opposition to the Child Tax Credits from Mike Crapo of Idaho, the top Republican on the Senate Finance Committee.
The issue has become ensnared in internal Senate GOP politics. With McConnell abandoning his long-held leadership post, Thune is vying for the top spot and doesn't want to run afoul of a key committee leader.
Crapo in March sent Democrats a list of requested changes to the bill, people familiar with the matter said. That list included requiring parents of children receiving the credit to supply Social Security numbers to verify their immigration status as well as rescinding the retroactive break for 2023.
Democrats are unwilling to back these additional changes to the bill, which had already been hashed out in bipartisan negotiations, people familiar with the talks said.
Crapo also said he might have more demands in the future.
The measure would restore expired tax breaks allowing businesses to more quickly recoup the costs of domestic research and development, interest on business loans and investment in equipment. Working poor parents would receive more generous Child Tax Credits, and be eligible for the first time to claim multiple children.
Last-minute push
A coalition of 250 business groups including the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the Business Roundtable and the National Association of Manufacturers has lobbied hard for the bill for months and are making a final effort for GOP support.
At least nine Republicans would have to support the bill to overcome an expected filibuster.
NAM started a digital ad campaign last week in multiple states, including McConnell's home state of Kentucky, asking the Senate to pass the tax bill.
The package is also running headlong into the schedule in the Senate, which is expected to begin the impeachment trial of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas on April 11.
A rush vote on the package would be doomed to fail, the Democratic aides said.
Yet advocates of the legislation are urging Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer to take the risk of setting up a vote, which would put Republicans in the difficult position of voting against business.
"To me, it's almost like legislative malpractice not to file," said Rohit Kumar, a former top aide to McConnell, now at Big Four firm PwC. Kumar added that if Schumer doesn't move forward, he makes himself a "co-conspirator in the death of the bill."
Without the tax package, the business community loses out on expired tax breaks they've been lobbying for years to revive.
