12 markets on the brink of a housing bubble this summer

Stronger wage and job growth, atop reductions in mortgage rates, have been welcome signs for clients in the market for a new home this summer. But advisors must note affordability hurdles are still prominent and outweigh consumer optimism related to favorable conditions like lower rates.

While in certain cities homebuyers are gaining more purchasing power, in others, the gap between the home-price appreciation rate and that of wages is widening. In these markets, where property value gains are outpacing wage increases, housing bubble dangers loom.

House prices are outpacing wages in about 40% of markets, and 61% were less affordable than the historic average, according to Attom Data Solutions. In 353 of the 480 counties analyzed by Attom, homes were not affordable to average wage earners in the second quarter.

Here's a look at 12 cities most in danger of a housing bubble this summer. The analysis, based on Attom data, evaluates localities with a minimum population of 100,000, at least 100 quarterly home sales and a median sales price above the national rate of $255,000. Counties are ranked by the gap between the annual increase in home prices and wages. Ties were broken by the lowest Affordability Index Value. The Attom Data Home Affordability Index measures average wages to buy a median-priced home on a recent and historical basis.

Hawaii County, Hawaii

Median sales price: $403,625 (13%)
Annual wages: $43,810 (3%)
Gap between growth in home prices and wages: 10 percentage points
Affordability Index: 84
Hilo, Hawaii
Shot this beautiful image of Hilo on my return trip from the lava fields. I highly recommend Paradise Helicopters of Hawai'i if you ever want to take a great helicopter tour
Traylor Photography/Ben - stock.adobe.com

Bristol County, Massachusetts

Median sales price: $300,000 (13%)
Annual wages: $50,973 (3%)
Gap between growth in home prices and wages: 10 percentage points
Affordability Index: 10
Providence, R.I.
Buildings along Thomas Street, in Providence, Rhode Island.
jonbilous - stock.adobe.com

Albemarle County, Virginia

Median sales price: $345,000 (10%)
Annual wages: $53,560 (0%)
Gap between growth in home prices and wages: 9 percentage points
Affordability Index: 91
Charlottesville, Va.
Tach - stock.adobe.com

Cowlitz County, Washington

Median sales price: $260,250 (13%)
Annual wages: $49,881 (5%)
Gap between growth in home prices and wages: 9 percentage points
Affordability Index: 86
Longview, Wash.
Lewis and Clark Cantilever Bridge over Columbia River between Rainier Oregon and Longview Washington States
David Gn/David Gn - stock.adobe.com

Skagit County, Washington

Median sales price: $355,500 (14%)
Annual wages: $49,491 (5%)
Gap between growth in home prices and wages: 9 percentage points
Affordability Index: 90
Anacortes, Wash.
TOM COCHRAN/Tom Cochran - stock.adobe.com

Hanover County, Virginia

Median sales price: $292,500 (8%)
Annual wages: $42,861 (0%)
Gap between growth in home prices and wages: 8 percentage points
Affordability Index: 94

Yavapai County, Arizona

Median sales price: $324,900 (11%)
Annual wages: $39,923 (4%)
Gap between growth in home prices and wages: 7 percentage points
Affordability Index: 87
Prescott, Ariz.
Building construction in the American west.
David M. Schrader/DavidMSchrader - stock.adobe.com

Dutchess County, New York

Median sales price: $275,000 (10%)
Annual wages: $54,119 (3%)
Gap between growth in home prices and wages: 7 percentage points
Affordability Index: 11
New York
Residential properties stand on the Upper West Side (UWS) of Manhattan in this aerial photograph taken over New York, U.S., on Saturday, Oct. 2, 2010. Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg
Andrew Harrer/Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloo

Ada County, Idaho

Median sales price: $309,279 (11%)
Annual wages: $50,349 (4%)
Gap between growth in home prices and wages: 7 percentage points
Affordability Index: 81
Boise, Idaho
Idaho state capital building and city of Boise
Charles Knowles/knowlesgallery - stock.adobe.com

Forsyth County, Georgia

Median sales price: $330,400 (7%)
Annual wages: $49,751 (0%)
Gap between growth in home prices and wages: 6 percentage points
Affordability Index: 86
NMN070318-atlanta.jpg
Aerial image of sports arenas at Downtown Atlanta GA
Felix Mizioznikov - stock.adobe.com

Butte County, California

Median sales price: $312,500 (10%)
Annual wages: $42,445 (3%)
Gap between growth in home prices and wages: 6 percentage points
Affordability Index: 94
Chico, Calif.

Weber County, Utah

Median sales price: $257,811 (9%)
Annual wages: $41,964 (3%)
Gap between growth in home prices and wages: 6 percentage points
Affordability Index: 80
Ogden, Utah
Jenny Thompson - stock.adobe.com
This article originally appeared in National Mortgage News.
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