Analysts Look to Commodities, Energy for Recovery

As the International Monetary Fund and The World Bank respectively predict world GDP growth of 2.5% and 2% next year and stock markets around the globe are expected to surge ahead of this growth, mutual fund analysts are beginning to weigh in on which sectors could lead the way out of the recession.

Morningstar Canada Analyst Phillip Lee is bullish on commodities, energy and infrastructure stocks. “Economic activity will drive the demand for energy consumption, and the building out of infrastructure will increase the demand for hard commodities,” Lee told The Globe and Mail.

“The resource sector should do reasonably well as the economy starts to turn,” agreed independent analyst Dave Paterson.

However, Lee cautioned, natural resource funds have already “staged a huge rally off their lows from earlier this year, and the bounce may be getting ahead of the economic recovery.”

Pointing to other rallies in time when small-cap stocks have led the way, independent analyst Dan Hallett is again bullish on the stocks. “They have more growth potential,” he said.

Another independent analyst, Peter Loach, is optimistic about core funds, especially since they have been hit very hard in the downturn.