(Bloomberg) -- Emerging-market stocks gained the most in three weeks and Mexico's peso led currencies higher as traders weighed the odds of a victory for Hillary Clinton in Tuesday's U.S. presidential election.
Developing-nation investors perceive a Clinton win as positive after Republican candidate Donald Trump put forward anti-trade pledges that may affect ties with Mexico and China. The peso, which headed for its biggest one-day gain against the dollar since September, has been considered a barometer for investors' views on Trump's chances in the election. A final Bloomberg poll released Monday pointed to a slim lead for Clinton, while the FBI a day earlier reaffirmed that Clinton's use of private e-mail servers wasn't a crime.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index jumped 1.7% to 894.77. Nine of the benchmark gauge's 11 industry groups advanced, with consumer-discretionary, energy and raw-material stocks all rising at least 1.9%. A gauge of developing-nation exchange rates rose to the highest level this month.
"The main driver is the drop of the Clinton case," said Regis Chatellier, a London-based strategist at Societe Generale, who favors sovereign international bonds from Mexico, Croatia and Turkey. "The market is pricing a higher chance for a Clinton victory."
Voter sampling putting Clinton ahead in the election contest followed news that the FBI is sticking to its July conclusion of Clinton's handling of her e-mails as secretary of state. The bureau's director James Comey informed Congress just more than a week ago that the FBI was looking at fresh e-mails potentially related to Clinton, a statement that roiled the presidential race and breathed new life into Trump's candidacy at a time most polls showed Clinton with a wide lead.
Developing-nation stocks fell 2.8% last week after the FBI announced its new investigation, while actively managed emerging-market equity funds lost a net $327 million in the week ending Nov. 2, their first outflow in 19 weeks, EPFR Global data show. Traders pulled $605 million out of the MSCI Emerging Markets ETF, the biggest ETF tracking the MSCI equity benchmark.
The Ibovespa jumped 3.4% Monday, ending a three-day decline in Sao Paulo. Commodity producers including Petroleo Brasileiro and Vale were among the biggest contributors to the advance. The Bloomberg Commodity Index added 0.3%, rising for the first time in seven days.
The BUX Index in Budapest rose 1.1% after Moody's became the third main ratings company to give the former communist nation investment-grade status. Samsung Electronics helped push South Korea's Kospi Index up 0.8%. Indian shares rebounded 0.7%, halting a five-day drop.
Egypt's EGX 30 Index gained 5.4% to the highest since February 2015. Stocks in the Arab nation have rallied amid bets a decision to float its currency will help cement a $12 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund.
The Egyptian pound has lost nearly 50% of its value since it was floated on Nov. 3. Egyptian banks began freely trading foreign exchange on the interbank market this week for the first time. The pound weakened 3.6% on Monday to 16.75 per dollar at the National Bank of Egypt, the country's largest lender.
The Mexican peso strengthened 2.3%. Brazil's real gained 1.3%. The South African rand rise 1.6%. China's yuan fell 0.3% after the central bank weakened its reference rate.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index added 0.3%, heading for the highest close since the end of October. The premium investors demand to own emerging-market sovereign bonds over Treasuries narrowed seven basis points to 343, according to JPMorgan Chase indexes. South Korea's bonds retreated, with the yield on 10-year notes rising two basis points to 1.74%. Government debt fell ahead of a review Friday where the central bank is forecast to keep interest rates unchanged.
