Despite concerns over the debt crisis in Europe and the growing debate over a second global recession, recent news on the domestic economic front has been “relatively decent,” according to Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott.
“Reports on manufacturing activity and retail sales showed respectable gains, suggesting businesses and consumers have not collapsed their spending,” Luschini said.
In addition, news of 103,000 nonfarm jobs added in September, which the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced Friday, is also encouraging, Luschini said. “So were the revisions made to the previous two months of data that collectively added almost 100,000 positions to payrolls,” he said.
“The cumulative evidence across these readings provides some hope that the economy’s momentum is sufficient to avert a recession,” Luschini said. “With valuations in the market reasonably low and pessimism relatively high, the simple absence of worsening news just may be the spark to ignite a robust year-end rally.”
Bob Doll, chief equity strategist, fundamental equities at BlackRock also believes that a U.S. recession is unlikely since he projects GDP growth of 2% in 2012. While the economy is certainly “operating far below its potential, we expect the economy will continue to ‘muddle through’ in the coming quarters,” Doll said. “We expect the United States will be able to avoid a recession, although we acknowledge that the pressures are growing.”
Separately, Deloitte released its Deloitte CFO Signals survey Wednesday, which indicated that only one-third of chief financial officers expect another recession in the U.S., even though they are significantly cutting back on growth and investment plans for the coming year.
