“In one fell swoop,” New York Community “would become a major player in New Jersey, gain a toehold in Fairfield County, and meaningfully deepen its presence” in the New York metro market, with a pro forma deposit market share of 4%, Fitzgibbon says. “However, we would be remiss if we did not point out that while [M&T] is having some regulatory challenges, there is no guarantee” that New York Community “would go through the regulatory process unscathed, especially since it would be a newly minted” systemically important institution.

Mark Fitzgibbon of Sandler O'Neill is often asked what he thinks will happen if M&T Bank's (MTB) deal to buy Hudson City Bancorp (HCBK) falls apart. He gets the question so much that he decided to put his thoughts in writing.

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