Alternative investments

NEW YORK - The whole world will be in a recession throughout 2009, economists say, but it will be the U.S. and its strong dollar that lead the world to recovery sometime in 2010.

Millionaires and affluent investors suffered steep losses in 2008, and most, particularly Baby Boomers, are rolling their remaining assets into cash and stable-value investments for the foreseeable future.

Institutions continued to seek safety in money market mutual funds in the latest week, and total assets of the funds grew by $27.13 billion to reach $3.922 trillion for the week ending Jan. 13, according to the Investment Company Institute.

Deciding where wealth management clients should put their money this year is a daunting business, but investment executives at some banking companies seem to wholeheartedly agree on where it should not go: into Treasury bills.

Long-only commodities mutual funds, exchange-traded funds and exchange-traded notes are, once again, attracting billions of assets, after losing money throughout 2008, The Wall Street Journal reports.

Variable annuity sales sank in 2008 as the stock market's swoon scared investors off.

NEW YORK - Millions of aging Baby Boomers heeded the reassuring words of their financial advisers and remained heavily invested in equities throughout 2008, only to watch in shocked disbelief as 40% of their life savings disappeared.

Risk management will take on an increasingly important role this year as financial firms struggle to survive the fallout from last year's market mess.

Hedge fund managers have been beating mutual fund managers at scooping up initial public offerings in recent years, but given the weak performance of and loss of assets at hedge funds, their competitive advantage may be waning, The Wall Street Journal reports.

Large asset management mergers and acquisitions deals will likely occur this year, according to a report from Jefferies Putnam Lovell, as firms take advantage of distressed sales and divestitures.

The Federal Reserve has allowed more companies to take part in its program to add more liquidity to money market mutual funds.

In recent years, smart investors have diversified their portfolios into alternative investments such as real estate and commodities, to buoy their holdings in times of market stress. But 2008 proved to be an anomaly, with those asset classes falling right down along with stocks. The average real estate and commodity mutual fund fell 40% to 50% last year, The Wall Street Journal reports.

Long-term U.S. government funds yielded 22.5% in the fourth quarter of 2008, for a three-month performance of 27.1% year to date, according to data from Morningstar Inc., as investors flocked to safety.

Among my predictions for 2008 was the subpoenaing of Eliot Spitzer's e-mails to prove his smear campaign against New York State Republican Majority Leader Joseph Bruno. And we all know what happened to the disgraced former governor of New York.

While the news about the economy and the markets continues to be bad, some in the business are taking heart.

Most executives wouldn't consider themselves "fortunate" if they took over one of the largest fund companies weeks before an historic market collapse.

Mutual fund managers Tom Forester and David Ellison stood out from the crowd last year with the two best-performing funds, even though they both lost money in 2008.The Forester Value Fund was down 0.82% for the year, thanks to investments in stocks that typically do well during recessions, such as Kraft Foods Inc., Johnson & Johnson and H.J. Heinz Co. The average decline for the year in the value fund category was 38%, according to Morningstar Inc.Ellison's FBR Small Cap Financial Fund was second among financial sector funds, losing just 10% of its value, compared to an average decline of 45% in its category.While Forester and Ellison may want to adjust their portfolios as market conditions improve, they are continuing to attract new clients and new assets for now. Forester said his fund's assets have grown fivefold in 2008 to $55 million."I'll probably be in some of the same stocks for the first six months or so of 2009," Forester told the Associated Press. "And then as I see things getting better, I'm going to shift out of the real defensive things, and get more constructive on the more cyclical stocks that can grow quite well as we come out of this period."Ellison's fund is invested primarily in low-risk small banks and in cash. He said he plans to keep it there until the economy starts to show broader signs of recovery."I think unaffordable mortgages are still going to chew on the economy for a while," he said.

A 38% drop in the Standard & Poor's 500 index last year seems almost rosy compared to the abysmal performance of three big mutual funds that all lost more than 60%.Legg Mason heavyweight manager Bill Miller - who once beat the S&P 15 years in a row - has gone from best to worst, with his Legg Mason Opportunity Trust fund down a staggering 65% for the year.According to Morningstar Inc., the second-worst performer was the Winslow Green Growth Fund, down 61%, followed by the Legg Mason Growth Trust fund, down 60%."[Miller] continued to try to position the fund for a recovery," Morningstar fund analyst Greg Carlson told The Wall Street Journal, adding that Miller kept holding on to stock in Amazon (down 45%), Expedia (down 74%) and Yahoo (down 48%) as well as Freddie Mac and American International Group Inc.Winslow manager Jack Robinson said the fund's losses were due to its concentrated portfolio and focus on green energy companies."We also made a couple of mistakes," Robinson said. "We stayed with some companies that had sound fundamentals but which had debt. We're going to be sticking with our investment philosophy for the long term."Morningstar's analysts are optimistic that Legg Mason's Growth fund, managed by Robert Hagstrom, is well positioned for an upswing in the markets, whenever that happens."Legg Mason Growth will soar again," Morningstar senior fund analyst Bridget Hughes. "We're confident that the fund will perform well in an upswing. In fact, since mid-November, it has gained more than 7.5%, putting it near the category's top."The staff of Money Management Executive ("MME") has prepared these capsule summaries based on reports published by the news sources to which they are attributed. Those news sources are not associated with MME, and have not prepared, sponsored, endorsed, or approved these summaries.

Regulators at the Securities and Exchange Commission issued a report to Congress on Tuesday that supports maintaining mark-to-market rules, rejecting a push from the banking industry to suspend the rules.Critics of the rules say the regulations mandate write-downs and don't reflect the true value of some assets, particularly mortgage-linked assets that could increase in value in time.The SEC said suspending the rules would weaken transparency and ultimately hurt investors and the capital markets.

It started badly on the tail end of the subprime crisis that began in the fall of 2007 and managed to get worse when catastrophic third-quarter results poured in, sending many of the biggest financial services firms straight down the crapper.The question is, where do we go from here?Analysts say the next year is going to be tough for advisers."What's an adviser to do?" said Kenneth Kehrer, the director of consulting at Kehrer-Limra in Princeton, N.J. "How can he encourage clients not to cash out their holdings when all the adviser's advice is proving wrong?"Advisers "are still sticking to theories, the experience and wisdom of the profession, while clients are losing confidence in them," Kehrer said. "We're all waiting for a comeback, but in the meantime financial advisers just look foolish. The tenets of diversification and rebalancing are shaken."It's small consolation that this is a crisis of confidence for everyone. No one really knows what's going to happen from one minute to the next, and no one knows when the crisis will end. The current consensus is pointing to anywhere from the end of the first quarter to early 2010.And at the same time advisers are trying to calm clients, their business may be shifting as the biggest banks digest their acquisitions and smaller banks try to accommodate a growing client base.One thing for advisers to remember is that the needs of clients and prospects haven't changed just because the market has — they still need to retire and put their kids through college. Sure, the conversations are more difficult now that everyone's problems are magnified, but financial consultants must man up, said Heywood Sloane, managing director of the Bank Insurance and Securities Association. "Advisers can either do these people a service or they can run and hide," he said. "Those advisers who choose to help will be remembered when all this is over."In the meantime, advisers can add value to client conversations by explaining the problem as it evolves. For example, Sloane said, market volatility unseen since the Great Depression is driven partly by the fact that no one knows what anything is supposed to cost at the moment, and so every purchase is an emotional response that makes the markets unpredictable.Sloane said housing will eventually lead the country out of this recession. Current and anticipated foreclosures are forcing housing prices down, and eventually the cost of a house will get low enough that a prospective homeowner will buy."Until we get a net decline in population, there will always be an increase in demand for resources, so the housing market will stabilize at some point," Sloane said. "You can help clients understand their options by helping them gain knowledge."Chip Roame, a managing principal of Tiburon Advisors in Tiburon, Calif., said banks "will definitely hire more financial advisers."But advisers who were planning their own retirements have to drink the same poison as their clients. Retirement just isn't an option right now. Even independent advisers who sold their books to banks in order to retire and live off the proceeds are suffering. Now that their assets are reduced and clients might be a flight risk, their books hold less value.