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Most mutual fund companies and financial planners rely on Monte Carlo simulation tools to help investors plan for their futures. They run thousands of investment scenarios to predict the success rate of probable portfolio returns given various contribution rates, investment mix and risk tolerances.But virtually none were ever designed to take a year like 2008 or the current extremes in the market into account—which has prompted many statisticians to go back to the drawing board, The Wall Street Journal reports.In the bell-shaped curve that Monte Carlo simulations use, “the probability of getting one of these extreme outcomes [like we saw last year] is basically zero,” explained Paul Kaplan, vice president of quantitative research at Morningstar, who notes that the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has declined 13% or more in one month at least 10 times since 1926.Thus, Monte Carlo simulators should be updated to include a larger number of scenarios that assume greater volatility, say critics, including the Retirement Income Industry Association.

Investors haven’t given up on retirement savings, but they aren’t expecting their portfolio balances to be restored anytime soon, Age Wave and Harris Interactive found in a survey of 2,082 investors they call “Retirement at the Tipping Point: The year That Changed Everything.”“A new era of cautious self-reliance is emerging from a truly unnerving fiscal dilemma," said Dr. Ken Dychtwald, founder and CEO of Age Wave. “For many people, their retirement dreams have vaporized. Each of the four generations polled is trying to alter its game plan in fascinating ways to seek peace of mind and to make the best of the years ahead.”Respondents, 60% of whom have lost money in the market over the past year, believe it will take seven years for their investments to return to their pre-crisis levels. The single-biggest worry among those age 55 or older, cited by 46% of respondents, is that they won’t be able to afford medical expenses. This is now a greater concern that lack of personal savings (18%) or uncertain entitlements (11%).Americans expect to delay retiring by an average of 4.2 years. Eighty-one percent said teaching children to live within their means is the most important financial advice parents could pass on to their children, up from 69% who said so a year ago. That was followed by 65% saying, begin saving at an early age.Ninety-five percent believe that financial management should be taught in high school and a standard subject, and 56% said the best thing about having money saved was security.However, 58% said having a loving family and relationships is the most important thing, but 33% cited being wealthy.Despite the dire outlook for the markets currently and what it has done to Americans’ savings, 60% said they view retirement as “a new, exciting chapter of life,” up from 52% last year. Seventy percent hope to work in some capacity in their retirement, not just to pay the bills but to remain stimulated and to continue to contribute to society.“While we discovered both disturbing and encouraging signs about retirement from each generation,” said David Baxter, SVP at Age Wave, “there are indications that of all cohorts, it’s the Millennials [Gen Y] that are coming out of this financial storm a wiser, more cautious and more responsible generation.”

An employee-led buyout of Neuberger Berman Group has been completed, creating what the firm calls “one of the world's biggest independent asset managers.” Neuberger, originally founded in 1939, has approximately $158 billion in assets under management. The New York-based firm is now majority owned by a group of employees, consisting of portfolio managers and senior professionals, with Lehman Brothers Holdings, the previous owner, still retaining the remainder.

The only way the financial services industry will recover from the brutal market and financial crisis of the present is to concentrate wholeheartedly on rebuilding investor trust. That was the overriding theme of this year’s Fund Forum Asia, the Singapore Straits Times reports.“High-profile frauds such as the Madoff and Stanford cases have made investors very nervous,” said David Seymour global head of investment management for KPMG. “The investor community is rattled, and confidence will not return easily.”To counter this sentiment, Seymour said, “Rebuild trust and confidence through strong customer relationship management. Historically, the most successful investment management firms have been those which focus clearly on their customers.”And while the market outlook currently remains weak, Seymour is convinced that investment management will bounce back in a “tremendous” way. “Those investment funds which keep their nerve, concentrate on improving transparency and communication with customers, and get themselves in shape for the new financial world order stand to enjoy an exciting and profitable future indeed.”Investors are currently seeking regular income-generating, low-risk products,” said Lester Gray, CEO of the Asia-Pacific arm of Schroders.

Harry Lange, manager of the $18.6 billion Fidelity Magellan Fund, appears to be back on a roll, up 10.6% so far this year after a brutal 2008, Dow Jones reports. Large technology and financial bets took the fund’s value down nearly 50% last year.

Principal Financial has laid off 75 people in asset management, most of them from its Des Moines headquarters.

Morningstar reported first quarter net income of $25 million, a 8.2% increase from $23.1 million in the first quarter of 2008. However, excluding acquisitions and the impact of foreign currency conversions, revenue declined 7.1%.

Money market funds lost $8 billion in the week ended April 29, bringing total assets to $3.798 trillion, the Investment Company Institute said.

Although their investments may have lost as much as 40% to 50% of their value, Canadians are resilient in their faith in mutual funds, PricewaterhouseCoopers found in a survey of 867 people who own mutual funds.

Smart401k has hired Impact Communications to promote its 401(k) advice services for plan participants.