Advisers are more confident than they have been since January, but they are still concerned over the disconnect in the marketplace, according to The Advisor Confidence Index (ACI), a benchmark that gauges advisor views on the U.S. economy and stock market.
On Monday, Rydex|SGI AdvisorBenchmarking revealed that adviser confidence about the economy and the stock market increased in July, up 2.29% from June, the first uptick since January. In June, the index fell a whopping 8.66%, for a total of over 20% since Jan. 1.
The Advisor Confidence Index’s positive month in July isn’t necessarily a sign of bullishness, though, Rydex|SGI AdvisorBenchmarking reported. It’s just as much a sign of advisers’ previous bearishness. Advisers continued to remain bearish with regard to the economy and the global markets over the longer term.
“While I believe the outlook is modestly positive at the moment, the global landscape has plenty of landmines,” said Richard Coe, CFP, of Coe Financial Services. “I suspect there will be some damaging explosions in the next few years.”
The Index has several economic components that saw a turn around from June’s double-digit declines: Advisers ’current economic outlook turned to a positive 4.17% in July, after tumbling -14.12% in June. In addition, the six-month economic outlook shot up to 5.48% and the 12-month economic outlook increased to 1.28%. Meanwhile, the stock market outlook, which was the component of the ACI that was positive in June, turned negative in July.
“Main Street and Wall Street are disconnected,” said financial adviser Peter Wheeler, who participated in the Index survey. “Corporate profits are up, but so are unemployment, foreclosures and negative sentiment. At some point rising interest rates, high gas prices or an international event will cause the fragile economy to freeze.”
Ruthie Ackerman writes for American Banker.