“Move past the crisis,” Barclays Wealth urges investors in its latest monthly strategy update. It would be wise to position for the economic recovery since most economists are revising their growth forecasts for 2010 upwards.
If investors want immediate evidence of a recovery, they need only look to emerging markets, “providing evidence of a quicker and more forthright recovery than their developed counterparts,” Barclays said.
Barclays recommends that investors buy U.S. small-cap stocks, a diversified portfolio of commodities, currencies and inverse floating-rate notes since governments are likely to slowly tighten monetary policy.
“It is time to move beyond last year’s trauma and take a business-as-usual approach to investment decisions,” said Aaron S. Gurwitz, head of global investment strategy at Barclays Wealth. “That means, broadly, holding more stocks and fewer bonds than typical and having more exposure to asset classes and sectors that do better in early stages of recovery.”
Kevin Gardiner, head of Europe, Middle East and Africa investment strategy at Barclays, added” “There will be both tactical opportunities, due to current market mispricing being righted, and structural opportunities, connected, for example, with the rise of Asia. It is important to remember, however, that each economic cycle is unique, and prices of some typical early sector winners, such as emerging market equities, high-yield bonds or European small-cap stocks, already reflect the expectation of a recovery.”