The economy will emerge from the recession in the second half of the year, but growth will be a tepid 2% in 2010, a survey of 23 leading economists by BNA found. By comparison, the U.S. economy grew an average of 3.1% a year between 1995 and 2004.
With growth so slow, it wont be able to put an end to unemployment, said the economists, who predict it will rise from 9.4% in May to 9.9% next year.
Thus, most consumers wont recognize the end of the recession until the middle or latter part of 2010. The economists dont expect the Federal Reserve to ease its monetary policy until next year, when the Fed funds rate will reach 1%. They also said that the glut of housing inventory is beginning to ease.