WASHINGTON — In the shadow of the fiscal cliff agreement, the likelihood of comprehensive tax reform that would seriously damage municipal bonds this year has slightly diminished, according to a research firm and other market participants.

Municipal Market Advisors cut their 2013 forecast to a “still-worrisome” 30% to 40% that lawmakers will succeed in overhauling the tax code and make serious changes to tax exemption. Its new forecast comes after projecting, for more than a year, that the odds of sweeping tax reform in 2013 would be 50% or higher.

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