Nuveen Asset Management’s newly minted Chief Equity Strategist Robert Doll today unveiled his 10 predictions for markets in 2013.
His predictions include:
1. The U.S. economy continues to muddle through with nominal growth below 5% for the seventh year in a row
2. Europe begins to exit recession by the end of year as the ECB eases and financial stresses lessen
3. The U.S. yield curve steepens as financial risks recede and deflationary threats lessen
4. U.S. stocks record a new all-time high as stocks advance for the fifth year in a row
5. Emerging market equities outperform developed market equities
6. After two years of underperformance, U.S. multinationals outperform domestically focused companies
7. Large-cap stocks outperform small-cap stocks and cyclical companies outperform defensive companies
8. Dividends increase at a double-digit rate as payout ratios rise
9. A nascent U.S. manufacturing renaissance continues, powered by cheap natural gas
10. The U.S. government passes a $2–3 trillion ten-year budget deal
Last year, Doll was on the ball with 60% of his calls on the markets including correctly predicting an ease in the European debt crisis, even as Europe experiences a recession and U.S. Treasury rates rising while quality spreads fall.
However, Doll incorrectly predicted that Republicans capture the Senate, retain the House and defeat President Obama in the 2012 election.