NEW YORK—Following one the worst global financial meltdowns, the economic recovery has exceeded almost anyone’s expectations and will get another jolt when employment numbers begin to improve in the next couple of months, according to Barclays Capital.

The key risk to the markets will be the withdrawal of policy stimulus, in America but especially in China, which “faces an overheating economy growing at breakneck speed and needs slow growth reasonably quickly,” according to Barclay’s global research report.

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