Fund performance

Amidst the worried debate over whether the United States will tumble into recession this year, market watchers agree on one thing: volatility is here to stay.

Morningstar on Wednesday announced its Fund Manager of the Year Awards, with the top honors for the fixed income category going to portfolio managers at Fidelity Investments, Artisan and Tweedy, Browne.

Did you have the foresight to invest heavily for your clients in Pacific Investment Management Co.’s 25-year zero coupon U.S. Treasury exchange-traded bond fund, one year ago?

The operators of the Chicago Board Options Exchange said its futures exchange achieved record volume in 2011, based on its fear index.

2011 was a tumultuous year, one that left most industry executives deeply uncertain about the future. The following predictions are meant to provide the industry with 10 key insights that should help clarify some of these uncertainties.

The best-performing mutual funds of 2011 invested in large-cap, dividend-paying stocks—putting utility, real estate investment trust, healthcare and consumer staple funds at the top of the heap.

Volatility, the fear of a second worldwide recession, continued aversion to equity funds and uncertainty over Dodd-Frank regulatory fallout-all headlined 2011.

As a client takes distributions, a money manager ultimately becomes more important than asset allocation as the sequence and volatility of market returns rises.

Only 30 stocks comprise the world’s most closely watched index – the Dow Jones Industrial Average – and its daily, weekly, monthly and annual gains (or losses) serve as a very handy – albeit simplistic – snapshot of investor sentiment and a decent barometer of how the U.S. and world economies are fairing.

U.S. homes are expected to lose more than $681 billion in value during 2011—and while that sounds like a staggering figure, it is 35% less than the $1.1 trillion lost in 2010, Zillow Real Estate Market Reports said.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose 9.3 points in December to 64.5 (1985 = 100), following a 14.3-point rise in November, The Conference Board said Tuesday.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index rose 0.5% in November to 118.0 (2004 = 100), following a 0.9% rise in October and a 0.1% bump in September.

Don’t rule out emerging market and high-end retail customers in 2012, according to a forward-looking analysis by Fidelity Investments’ Sector Portfolio managers. In coordinated press conferences this month, the managers pointed to numerous areas of growth they expect in the coming year.

Financial advisers will remember 2011 as “The Year of Volatility” or “The Year of Uncertainty,” according to a survey of 200 financial advisers polled by the SEI Advisor Network, an asset management and back-office administration service provider to financial advisers.

Americans’ financial outlook is ending 2011 with a continued rise in confidence, the Country Financial Security Index shows. The index rose 1.6 points in December, to end the year at 64.8.

Morningstar has announced its five nominees for the Morningstar Domestic Stock Fund Manager of the Year Award. The 2011 nominees are:

The $241 billion PIMCO Total Return, which has underperformed its peers over the past year—returning 3.48% year to date—has been hit with $17 billion in outflows, Morningstar data shows. By comparison, taxable bond funds, which are up 5.87% YTD, took in $105.8 billion in inflows over the past 12 months.

The U.S. economy, while still vulnerable, has shown encouraging signs of progress over the last few months, according to a report released Wednesday by TD Economics, an affiliate of TD Bank.

Despite the historic equity market decline of 2008-2009, most 401(k) participants earned positive investment returns in the five-year period ended 2010, according to Vanguard. In fact, the average return was 3.76% a year, not including the impact of continued contributions.

One of the biggest topics on the minds of financial services executives in 2011 has been volatility, with a slew of articles and TV news stories pinning the blame on high-frequency trading, hedge funds and leveraged ETFs.